Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 20 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

20 Feb 2022 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (22 Feb 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 06:00 - 22 Feb 2022 18:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	204 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	148	14.9 million	220 thousand	Madagascar
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	176	17.7 million	2.3 million	Madagascar
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	157	19.1 million	2.9 million	Madagascar
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	167	16.2 million	3.2 million	Madagascar
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	194	20.2 million	4.9 million	Madagascar
9	20 Feb 2022 06:00	213	19.3 million	3.2 million	Madagascar
10	20 Feb 2022 18:00	204	19.5 million	4.3 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 63
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 61.3
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16, 59.5
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.4, 58.1
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	460000 people	-16.9, 57.1
9	20 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-17.2, 55.9
10	20 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	120000 people	-17.6, 54.6
10	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	5.5 million people	-18.2, 53.2
10	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	14.7 million people	-19, 51.6
10	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	204	2.7 million people	17 million people	-20.1, 49.8
10	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	157	3.8 million people	17 million people	-21.5, 47.8	Madagascar
10	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	4 million people	-24.7, 44.1	Madagascar
10	24 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	62000 people	-27.8, 41.6
10	25 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-31.9, 41.3

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Manakara	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	35000 people
Fianarantsoa	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	160000 people
Ihosy	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	17000 people
Betroka	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Manakara Sud	WVK	10	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Fianarantsoa	WFI	1115	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Ambalavao		972	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600
Ihosy	IHO	762	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5400
Bekily	OVA	387	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100
Ampanihy	AMP	235	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar
Manakara	MGWVK	Madagascar
Androka	MGADK	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Mahela, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (152 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 20 Feb 2022 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.6
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Besasavy	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Belefotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 10:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Androka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 05:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Itampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Farafangana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Manombo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Lavavolo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ankazoabo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Tulear	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Tanilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 11:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Belalanda	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Antseranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 03:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 03:00	Ambohibe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 03:00	Andranopasy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Manambotra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Manahy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 08:00	Andavadoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Miary	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Anja-Belitsaka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 02:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Anakao	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Soalara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Esama	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Ankaramanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 01:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 01:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 01:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 01:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 01:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 01:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 01:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 01:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Behazomby	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 02:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 11:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 11:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.